Plan
Four phases, from site agreements and feasibility work now to a full build by 2032 and green steel after that.
Phases
Phase 0
Site leases, a feasibility study, seed funding, a plan for working with First Nations, front-end engineering (FEED), and referral to the Major Projects Office (MPO).
Phase 1
Build the electrolyzer and the fuelling hub. Start trailer deliveries and fuel the first customers. Test pyrolysis.
Phase 2
Run the electrolyzer at full capacity and grow pyrolysis. Add the remaining customers. Start blending hydrogen into FortisBC gas.
Phase 3
Supply hydrogen for green steel. A plant in the Elk Valley makes HBI, a form of iron for steelmaking (250,000 t/yr base case, using 36,986 kg/day of hydrogen). The HBI is exported to Asia-Pacific, and coal workers get a just transition. Phase 3 adds $15.7M/yr to Phase 1, for $46.1M combined operating profit a year.
Status
The next step is four contracts that lock in the economics: customer supply contracts, off-peak power, a carbon buyer and the Burrard site lease.
See the detail
Completed
- Executive briefing V6 complete
- Economic model draft complete
- 30+ organizations identified, from suppliers to customers
- Burrard Thermal site analysis complete
Next steps
- BC Hydro site lease agreement
- VFPA land lease for Waterfront hub
- UVic IESVic feasibility study
- NRCan / ISED funding application
- NorthX Climate Tech seed funding
- MPO referral as Project of National Interest
- Plan with First Nations for involvement and ownership
Deliverables by phase
Each phase has a gate. PDEC moves to the next one only when the contracts and funding for it are in place.
See the detail
Phase 0: Pre-development
- Get letters of interest from TransLink, CPKC and BC Ferries to show committed demand
- Talk to BC Hydro about leasing Burrard Thermal before it reapplies to the BCUC to decommission the site
- Start the VFPA land lease for the Waterfront fuelling hub
- Bring in an industry partner to co-develop the project (HTEC, an infrastructure fund or a large energy company)
- Hire UVic IESVic for a techno-economic feasibility study, co-sponsored by BC Hydro and VFPA
- Start formal talks with Tsleil-Waututh Nation about an ownership share, in line with DRIPA
- Apply to the NRCan Clean Fuels Fund and NorthX Climate Tech for Phase 0 funding
- Assess the Burrard Thermal site: test for contamination, review the structures and scope any cleanup
- Ask the MPO to designate PDEC a Project of National Interest
Phase 1: First hydrogen
- Install a 20-40 MW PEM electrolyzer at Burrard Thermal
- Build the Waterfront hub with 700-bar pumps and ship fuelling (marine bunkering)
- Start tube trailer deliveries (a 25-minute drive between sites)
- Start fuelling the first customers: West Coast Express, SeaBus, transit buses, port cranes
- Start a methane pyrolysis pilot on the existing FortisBC gas pipeline
- Set up a BCIT hydrogen safety certification program
- Close CIB, LCFS and Canada Public Transit Fund financing to pay for Phase 1
Phase 2: Scale-up
- Expand the electrolyzer to meet the full 23,627 kg/day of demand
- Grow methane pyrolysis to 35% of production and sell the solid carbon
- Add the remaining customers: Hullo Ferries, BC Ferries, Harbour Air, port trucks
- Start blending hydrogen into FortisBC's natural gas network
- Start talks with DND on hydrogen for shore power at CFB Esquimalt (IDEaS program, Energy Performance Contracts)
Phase 3: Green steel corridor and export
- Ship green hydrogen by CP Rail to an HBI plant in the Elk Valley
- Refuel CPKC hydrogen locomotives at Burrard Thermal
- Steady industrial supply for Nippon Steel (owns 20% of Elk Valley Resources, EVR) and POSCO (owns 3% of EVR) through the Port of Vancouver
- Export green HBI to Asia-Pacific steelmakers to replace iron made with coal in blast furnaces
- Follow the federal Sustainable Jobs Act for a just transition of 5,400 Elk Valley coal workers
- Sell solid carbon to electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmakers for electrodes and carburizer
- Supply more to defence: naval shore power, synthetic jet fuel for 19 Wing Comox, and hydrogen for remote NORAD microgrids
Funding by phase
Each phase draws on programs that already exist, from early grants to the Canada Infrastructure Bank and the Clean Hydrogen tax credit.
See the detail
Which funding source applies to which phase. Phase 2 and 3 sources are not yet assigned. All figures in $CAD.
| Funding instrument | Phase 0 | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry equity | Ballard, Corvus, Indigenous | Equity | |||
| NorthX Climate Tech | Seed funding | Non-dilutive grant / repayable | |||
| Canada Infrastructure Bank | $337M precedent (HTEC) | Loan | |||
| Provincial LCFS Initiative | $133M precedent (HTEC) | Initiative Agreements | |||
| NRCan Clean Fuels Fund | Co-sponsor | Production infrastructure | Grant | ||
| Canada Public Transit Fund (replaced ZETF) | Transit and marine | Grant | |||
| ISED Strategic Response Fund (replaced SIF) | $5B program; $49M SIF precedent (HTEC) | Grant / loan | |||
| PacifiCan | Regional development | Grant | |||
| Budget 2025 Super-Deduction | Immediate expensing | Tax incentive | |||
| $5B Trade Diversification Fund | Port and rail infrastructure | Federal program | |||
| Major Projects Office | Referral | Fast-track permitting | Designation | ||
| UVic research funding | Feasibility study (TEA) | NSERC / internal | |||
| DND IDEaS Program | H2 storage R&D ($6.75M) | Grant (phased) |
Risk register
The main risks, how likely each one is, and what PDEC does about it.
See the detail
Each risk is rated for likelihood and impact, with PDEC's response.
BC Hydro declines site lease
Several groups want to reuse the site for industry, which helps. Port Moody council wants it reused. If the lease falls through, other former industrial sites in Metro Vancouver could work, such as the Deltaport area.
BCUC blocks Burrard reuse
The BCUC rules on decommissioning only. Leasing the site is a BC Hydro real estate decision. A federal Major Projects Office designation may override the provincial process.
Key offtakers don't commit
26 uses across 11 sectors add up to about twice what the plant can make, so PDEC can pick its anchor customers. The largest single use is 13% of the pipeline. Industrial and regulated buyers (Burnaby refinery, YVR SAF, industrial gas wholesale) do not wait on fleet replacement cycles. Phase 1 works with 4 customers.
Battery-electric displaces hydrogen
Batteries are winning where vehicles can charge at the depot. TransLink is growing to 178 battery buses, and BC Ferries' Island Class runs on batteries. Those operators chose batteries when hydrogen cost $16.50/kg retail. At PDEC's $6.50/kg ($5.75 bulk, $7.63 delivered), about 13% below diesel, the numbers change the next time each operator buys equipment. PDEC's customer plan also starts with rail, port equipment, port trucks and long-range ships, where batteries are weakest.
CIB/federal funding not secured
There are many funding sources: CIB, LCFS, Canada Public Transit Fund, Strategic Response Fund, PacifiCan and Budget 2025. The Clean Hydrogen ITC is now law. HTEC got a $337M CIB investment commitment, $133M through LCFS and $49M from SIF. Provincial programs can fund PDEC on their own.
Carbon product price below modelled
Modelled at $1,000/t, the price PDEC plans to lock in with a carbon offtake contract before construction. North American carbon black spot was about CAD $2,585/t in July 2026, so that is about 40% of spot. At $188/t, the lowest price tested, PDEC still earns $23.8M EBITDA a year.
Construction cost overruns
Phase 1 capex is $368.4M before support, including a 25% contingency, or $110.3M after tax credits, grants and offsets. The model pays for a new substation, dock and water connection, so reusing Burrard's existing ones would save money. The electrolyzer and compressors would be bought on fixed-price EPC contracts. Building in phases lets PDEC change scope as it goes.
Environmental contamination at Burrard
Phase 0 includes a site assessment. Under the Environmental Management Act, BC Hydro is responsible for contamination that is already there. Cleanup costs do not pass to the tenant.
Defence offtaker timeline uncertainty
DND takes 3-7 years to buy. Shore power is the likely first use (medium-high confidence, 3-5 yr). Submarine refuelling and SAF would be extra. The project makes money with no defence demand at all, because civilian customers carry the base load whatever the military decides.
First Nations opposition
Talks started early. Four Nations are being engaged: Tsleil-Waututh, Squamish, Musqueam and Haisla. Three already do clean energy work in the region (Tsleil-Waututh with GCT, Haisla with HaiSea, Squamish with UBC). PDEC is set up to offer an ownership share and revenue sharing from day one.
What PDEC needs next
Four contracts lock in the economics before anything is built. If you could sign one of them, or help find who will, a short call is the next step.
Customer contracts
Fleet, marine, port and industrial hydrogen buyers. They commit to buy a set volume at $6.50/kg, and the price never drops below $5.20/kg.
Off-peak power
BC Hydro. A supply agreement at about 5.5 cents a kilowatt-hour, with the plant running when power is cheapest.
Carbon buyer
Makers of steel, batteries, tires and building materials. They buy the solid carbon left when the plant splits natural gas, at $1,000 a tonne or better.
Anchor volumes
Transit, ferry and port operators. Committed volumes that keep the plant running at 85% of capacity.